Over a Candle

I had two fears about the immediate fallout from an Obama loss (if such a thing had actually come to pass).

The first was that Democrats would learn the wrong lesson from such a (now hypothetical) defeat. Obama ran the smoothest, most disciplined campaign I have ever seen. Had Obama lost, I didn’t want the Democrats to blame it on the way his campaign was managed. It seems to me that it’s a campaign Democrats should study for future campaigns. And had he lost, I was worried they wouldn’t do that.

I suspect I can put that fear to rest now.

The second fear, though, may not be as easily averted. My second fear, if Obama had lost, was that the Republicans wouldn’t engage in the necessary soul-searching that they so desperately need. George W. Bush and the neocons have moved the party so far away from its traditional conservative roots that it’s hardly recognizable. There has been no fiscal discipline. There has been none of the humility on the foreign stage that Bush advocated in his 2000 campaign. The government is more involved in our lives than ever (it seems). The Republicans need to find a more coherent (and I would hope a more traditionally conservative) message for their party.

Had McCain won, I feared that the Republicans might think that everything was fine with their party and not engage in that necessary self-evaluation. (I don’t mean that it’s just necessary for them. I think it’s necessary for the country to have a viable and reasonable alternative to the Democrats’ policies. Having a positive message to rival that of the Democrats is good for all of us.) With McCain’s defeat, I thought such a reevaluation an inevitability.

But now I worry that it may not happen. I’ve heard a few Republican pundits in the last 24 hours suggest that this country is still “center-right.” They somehow believe that this “center-right” country voted for “socialists” (as they would have us believe about Obama and Biden) because… why? I don’t know. They will cling to their incoherent party policies in the face of overwhelming evidence that the country rejects them.

I had hope that the Republicans who spoke up during the campaign to critique McCain’s run might get a fair hearing and help the Republicans come together with a positive, forward-looking plan. But instead, the Republicans seem content to blame McCain, or Palin, or the public, or the media.

I still hope that the Republicans, after they vent their ire, might still do some of that important soul-searching. Until they do, they deserve their time in the wilderness.

Perhaps, at least, they can serve as a reminder to the Democrats not to get too complacent. As we saw in 1994 and again in 2006, the public can get frustrated with hubris from either party.

I think scoring the debate will be very hard. Biden was expected to have a tight-rope to walk, and I think he found the secret to succeeding. Palin was expected to do poorly, and she probably out-performed her basement level expectations.

The tone of the debate was perhaps immediately set by the first audible comment from the debate. As Sarah Palin shook Joe Biden’s hand, she asked, “Can I call you ‘Joe?’” The two deferred to one another at times, pointing out areas of disagreement and appreciation for the positions.

These two seemed friendlier with one another than McCain and Obama. Indeed, Palin and Biden spent several minutes on the stage talking to one another after the debate. It seemed like a cordial exchange.

Palin managed to sound relatively informed, ready to answer questions. She did seem to get lost in her answers at times. Her attempts at one-liners always seemed to fall flat and sound terribly rehearsed. And there were a number of questions she didn’t answer, including what her Achilles’ heel was. She was also rather vague at many points. But I don’t think anyone will be surprised by this. She is thinner on knowledge and experience, and I don’t expect her failure will turn off any supporters. Her problem is that I don’t think she did anything to help her with independents that are unsure of her readiness. Given recent polls showing an increase in some independents’ uneasiness, she needed to reassure them. And I don’t think she did. She didn’t hurt herself. But she didn’t help herself, either, I think.

Biden avoided being long-winded. He covered a great deal of ground in a short period of time. Sometimes that was perhaps too dense. But he didn’t go on and on. And didn’t commit any major gaffes that I noticed. More importantly, though, he avoided ever sounding condescending toward Palin. He did that mostly be talking at the camera and talking about McCain. He never tried to instruct or dismiss her. He simply took issue with McCain’s positions and her characterization of them. And I think that was a winning strategy. Biden was debating a representative of McCain, not Palin herself. And that struck the right tone, I believe.

Who won? Palin certainly exceeded the incredibly low expectations that her recent interviews had set for her. But Biden avoided the many pit-falls he faced and came off sounding much more presidential, and seemed much more competent to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency. I don’t know that either campaign sees any bump from this debate. And I suspect that is a win for Obama-Biden. The Vice-Presidential debates have, historically, had little effect on campaigns. McCain-Palin sought to change that with the energy and excitement surrounding Palin. Biden effectively neutralized the possibility that this debate would make the difference. And that strikes me as a good thing for Obama-Biden.